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Lessons from Forecasting the Ukraine War
Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…
Richard Hanania
Feb 28
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Lessons from Forecasting the Ukraine War
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Why Forecasting War is Hard
The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread. He argued that the Russian convoy north of…
Richard Hanania
Mar 10
39
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Why Forecasting War is Hard
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Futarchy: Robin Hanson on How Prediction Markets Can Take over the World
Transcript of interview
Richard Hanania
Sep 15, 2021
13
2
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Futarchy: Robin Hanson on How Prediction Markets Can Take over the World
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Fertility as the Final Boss in Chinese Development, and Richard Hanania Prediction Markets
Predictions, January 2022
Richard Hanania
Jan 13
29
37
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Fertility as the Final Boss in Chinese Development, and Richard Hanania Prediction Markets
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Finally, Real Money
It's all about the base rate
Richard Hanania
Jun 21
25
17
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Finally, Real Money
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Predictions, Spring 2021
Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee
Richard Hanania
May 12, 2021
10
4
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Predictions, Spring 2021
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