Prediction Markets

Everything having to do with forecasting and prediction markets, with the goal of acheiving intellectual accountability

It's all about the base rate
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The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread. He argued that the Russian convoy north of…
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Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…
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Predictions, January 2022
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Transcript of interview
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Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee
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