Prediction Markets | Richard Hanania's Newsletter | Substack

Prediction Markets

Everything having to do with forecasting and prediction markets, with the goal of acheiving intellectual accountability

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On September 9, a group of investors trading on PredictIt and academics that study its data, along with its technology provider Aristotle International…

Richard Hanania

Sep 28, 2022

It's all about the base rate

Richard Hanania

Jun 21, 2022

The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread. He argued that the Russian convoy north of…

Richard Hanania

Mar 10, 2022

Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…

Richard Hanania

Feb 28, 2022

Predictions, January 2022

Richard Hanania

Jan 13, 2022

Transcript of interview

Richard Hanania

Sep 15, 2021

Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee

Richard Hanania

May 12, 2021

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