On September 9, a group of investors trading on PredictIt and academics that study its data, along with its technology provider Aristotle International…
4

June 2022

It's all about the base rate
17

March 2022

The tire guy has become famous among those following the war in Ukraine closely for the following thread. He argued that the Russian convoy north of…
88

February 2022

Given that I’ve made quite a few predictions about the war in Ukraine and how it would unfold, it’s a good time look back on them and draw some lessons…
121

January 2022

Predictions, January 2022
37

September 2021

Transcript of interview
2

May 2021

Intellectual honesty, and why Trump will be the 2024 nominee
4