Chris Nicholson joins me again to talk about the war in Ukraine. Looking at a map of the situation (video of our conversation here), we discuss what is happening around Kharkiv, Kherson, and the Donbas. The Russians are in the process of evacuating Kherson, and the question appears to be what the withdrawal will look like rather than if it will happen. Away from the front, Iranian drones are apparently having a massive impact on Ukrainian infrastructure. Chris has changed his mind on this topic – while he first assumed that Russia could not effectively target Ukrainian infrastructure indefinitely, he now believes Iranian missiles and drones have created a new reality.
We talk about how much this will matter for the outcome of the war. In the end, things are looking a little better for Russia than they did at the beginning of the month, despite the impending loss of Kherson. As already mentioned, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are having a major effect, and the impact on the civilian population should only increase as we head into winter. More Iranian shipments of missiles and drones mean that things could get worse for Ukraine before they get better. Finally, Russian mobilization is only starting to have its effect. Regardless of what happens in the near future, it appears that we are a long way off from any kind of settlement to the conflict. We close by talking about reports of Russian losses in terms of men and equipment and whether they can be taken at face value.
The audio and video are for now only available to paid subscribers, but will be released to everyone else after 48 hours.
Links:
Data on equipment losses based on photo and video confirmation
Ukrainian estimates on Russian casualties and equipment losses
“HIMARS as Miracle Weapons,” October 3, 2022, previous conversation with Chris Nicholson on the Ukraine War
“Could Long-Range Iranian Missiles Be Next For Russia?”
“Ukraine Situation Report: Iranian Officials Admit To Selling Russia Ballistic Missiles (Updated).”
The Impact of Winter, and Iranian Drones and Missiles