7 Comments

Publishing a book through a mainline publisher should be about more than just book sales. Especially if you already have an audience, you can target hitting a bestseller list which can add a ton of credibility. Look up prominent intellectuals (or "intellectuals") and you'll see "NYT Bestselling Author" right up front in their bio. All of your preorder sales count for first week's sales and the number needed to hit important lists are lower than you'd expect for nonfiction.

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In the part where you discuss predicting the policy of the USA, you conclude that it’s basically a matter of inertia, the USA will keep its attention basically wherever it is right now, and will just use whatever reasons come to hand to stay in those places. What countries are doing the best at reading this and which countries are making mistakes?

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Jan 8, 2022·edited Jan 8, 2022

Congrats on the book! I didn't know academic publishers kept so much of the profits, rather ironic... not giving much to the 'workers'. Also most curious to see that follow up. In your last one, you were high on both Trump and Biden being their respective party nominees next time around and I swear all the 'experts' keep saying we just don't know if either one of them will but this seems wrong to me. The other day, for instance, 538 was saying Trump might well not be nominee... like have these people been asleep since 2016! And people on PI keep saying Biden is going to bow out. I mean maybe but seems mistaken.

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5%?? Hahaha, damn, that's a raw deal.

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Would be really interested in posts where you make forecasts! And for the money, just also mention the odds you’re accepting bets on, surely some trustworthy people will bite.

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Congratulations Richard -- any chance it will be published as an audio book? Many thanks in advance

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